Washington-Tehran: Europe and the Arabs

In light of developments related to the negotiations to end the war between the United States and Iran, there is renewed consideration of previous proposals. Washington and Tel Aviv had wagered that military pressure would lead to an internal uprising that would topple the Islamic Republic. However, this scenario did not materialize, prompting the US administration to prioritize negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Brussels-based European news network Euronews, there are growing indications within the administration of US President Donald Trump that the diplomatic track with Iran is no longer sufficient to achieve Washington's objectives. This has brought the option of regime change back to the forefront of discussions, after months of negotiations that have not yielded the results the US administration had hoped for.

According to an analysis published by the Financial Times, officials within the Trump administration are considering a range of economic, political, and possibly covert options to pressure Tehran and weaken the regime, given the declining confidence in the possibility of extracting Iranian concessions through negotiation. Washington and Tel Aviv had wagered, with the launch of the war against Iran on February 28, that military pressure would lead to an internal uprising that would topple the Islamic Republic. However, this scenario did not materialize, prompting the US administration to prioritize negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

But the stalled negotiations, according to the report, have brought the option of regime change back into focus within the White House, amidst discussions of new ways to intensify pressure on Tehran. These include targeting its oil exports, strengthening ties with figures within the government, and supporting opposition groups capable of undermining the regime's authority.

Nevertheless, the report indicates that these discussions do not mean that President Trump has officially decided to adopt a policy of regime change, but they do reflect growing doubts about the ability of diplomacy to achieve what Washington considers an Iranian "surrender" on its terms.

The Strait of Hormuz stands out as one of the most prominent points of contention in the negotiations, as Tehran insists on its right to impose fees on ships transiting the strait, while Washington maintains that Iran has already pledged not to do so, further complicating the chances of reaching an agreement. Given this stalemate, some US officials believe the administration may be forced to lower its objectives, settling for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping without tolls and reinstating previous restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, rather than pursuing a fundamental shift in the balance of power within Iran.

The report indicates that military options also appear difficult, as airstrikes alone may not be sufficient to guarantee the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US administration shows no inclination to engage in a large-scale ground operation that could require hundreds of thousands of troops and last for many months.

The report also notes that the war has demonstrated Iran's ability to threaten vital infrastructure in the Gulf region, including military bases, energy facilities, airports, and desalination plants, in addition to its continued development of its missile and drone capabilities, with increasing technical support and cooperation from Russia and China.

Options under consideration within the US administration include tightening sanctions on Iranian oil exports, expanding contacts with figures within the Iranian political and security establishment, and exploring support for opposition forces within Iran. The report also noted information about Israeli attempts to contact prominent Iranian political figures, including former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as well as renewed discussions on proposals to support Kurdish groups inside Iran.

Conversely, the report warns that any attempt to overthrow the Iranian regime could lead to a protracted and costly conflict, given the Islamic Republic's ability to withstand sanctions, protests, and external pressure over the past decades, while maintaining strong control over its security and military institutions.

The report also pointed out that the current war has depleted a significant portion of the US stockpile of Patriot and Tomahawk missiles, noting that replacing these munitions could take three to five years. This could affect the United States' ability to deal with other military crises, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.

In conclusion, the newspaper cited assessments from Israeli officials indicating that Trump might expand military operations against Iran by targeting more strategic infrastructure and senior officials, a scenario that could increase the likelihood of a direct Iranian response against US and Israeli interests in the region.