Budapest: Europe and the Arabs

Hours before Sunday's vote in Hungary, US President Donald Trump pledged to support the Hungarian economy should Prime Minister Viktor Orbán win the parliamentary elections. Trump expressed his support for his political ally in a message posted on his Truth Social platform, affirming Washington's readiness to bolster the Hungarian economy.

Trump wrote: "My administration stands ready to use the full economic power of the United States to boost the Hungarian economy, as we have done previously for our major allies, should Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Hungarian people need it." He added that he was "excited" to invest in the future prosperity he believes will be achieved if Orbán continues to lead.

Orbán, who has been in power since 2010, is seeking a fifth term in the elections. However, his conservative, pro-European rival, Péter Magyar, is leading by a significant margin in independent opinion polls. The Hungarian prime minister, known within the European Union as one of Trump's closest allies, met with US Vice President J.D. Vance a few days ago.

There are growing concerns within the Hungarian opposition that the nationalist leader may not accept the election results. Members of the Council of Europe Parliament recently expressed their apprehension about the "toxic" nature of the election campaign, which they described as characterized by "inflammatory propaganda" from Orbán, who is simultaneously facing increasing economic and social discontent.

Opposition leader Péter Magyar called on Hungarians to remain calm during the election period. He asked voters "not to give in to any provocation whatsoever and to remain calm" and called on Orbán "to accept the verdict of the Hungarian people with the necessary calm and dignity." Under the headline "Crucial Election," a report in Playbook Brussels, the European edition of Politico, stated, "The latest polls indicate that Viktor Orbán will lose Sunday's parliamentary elections. After 16 years in power, the departure of the Hungarian prime minister would send shockwaves through the European Union. But his unexpected return would be just as dramatic, warn allies and opponents alike." Orbán's Fidesz party trails Tesa, the center-right European People's Party MEP, by 10 points, according to the Politico poll. However, this lead does not necessarily guarantee more seats in Hungary's complex electoral system. What will happen? Julia Pucci, a Hungarian political expert and researcher at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), says that polls, even those conducted by the government, indicate that Magyar is on track to win. She said, "The only question is whether he will secure an absolute majority, which I consider the most likely scenario, or a plurality." Two-thirds, which is the least likely outcome.

“If Magyar doesn’t get a two-thirds majority, he won’t be able to change the system much, and the system will continue to serve Orbán until it’s dismantled,” says Bocchi.

Frank Furedi, executive director of the Fidesz-backed MCC Brussels think tank—which Magyar has hinted he intends to shut down—says the campaign is “very close” and could see “a large segment of the silent electorate who haven’t actively participated in the voting process” cast their ballots against Orbán. That’s what could make this election different from previous ones.

Be careful what you wish for: An Orbán defeat could mean the end of his decisive veto power on key issues such as Russian sanctions and Ukraine’s €90 billion loan. But the EU might also miss the unifying influence of his opponent, says Furedi. “If Orbán didn’t exist, they would have to invent him,” he says. The man they love to hate: “For Orbán’s opponents, he has provided a focal point for unity. They say, ‘Okay, we may disagree on the environment, the Green Deal, agriculture, everything else—but we all hate Orbán,’” says Furedi.

The worst-case scenario: Another possibility is an inconclusive result or a bitter legal battle. “If there is no clear winner, and Trump and Vance tweet that the election was stolen, we are in trouble,” said an EU official who asked not to be identified to speak candidly.

On the other hand… if Orbán wins a fifth term, the EU is preparing for a crucial confrontation. Officials told Politico that serious discussions will take place about further restricting the government’s access to sensitive intelligence, following reports that Budapest shared EU information with Moscow. A spokesperson for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that she will confront Orbán about these allegations.

In a firm tone, Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho said on Thursday: “These allegations highlight the worrying possibility of a member state’s government coordinating with Russia and thus actively working against the security and interests of the EU and all its citizens. It is incumbent upon the member state’s government to provide an urgent explanation.”

An EU diplomat said: “Hungary is playing with fire,” adding that there is growing consensus on invoking Article 7 of the EU treaty and restricting Budapest’s rights in response to violations of the EU’s fundamental values. He added: “If Fidesz wins, there will be a serious discussion at the highest levels.”

But Orbán and his allies are planning a decisive confrontation should they win. Hungarian Minister for European Affairs János Buká told Playbook: “It is strange to hear my EU colleagues lecturing me on trust and sincere cooperation while their agents are conducting covert operations to undermine our government and interfere in the electoral process.”  

The need for accountability: “After the election, we need a frank and open discussion about this. But before that, I must ask them if they are recording those conversations as well”—a reference to the recent damaging revelations about Hungary’s dealings with Moscow.

A war of words: The Commission denies any claims that the EU tried to influence the outcome, insisting that national elections are a matter for the citizens alone. Meanwhile, Fidesz is also accusing Facebook of interfering in its campaign, as Max Griera wrote today. A coalition of MEPs from various parties is urging the Commission to investigate allegations of Russian influence and voter manipulation in favor of the ruling party.

Meanwhile, in Orbán’s hometown of Welchöt, the prime minister owns a white cottage, reflecting his humble origins. But just four kilometers away, the Orbán family owns a sprawling mansion and vast estate that once belonged in the 19th century to Archduke Joseph of Austria.