Brussels – Europe and the Arabs

A two-day summit of European Union leaders begins in Brussels on Thursday, featuring a strategic discussion on the issue of migration. According to the summit agenda—released in a statement by EU institutions—European Council President António Costa highlighted the success of the EU’s comprehensive approach in this area, a success confirmed by figures showing a significant and sustained decline in the number of irregular migrants. He also emphasized the need for continued vigilance and preparedness, the importance of solidarity when member states face crises, and the necessity of further strengthening the EU’s crisis-response capabilities—including in situations where migration is exploited as a tool of pressure.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is expected to arrive at the European Council leaders' meeting determined to engage in a sharp confrontation over the migration issue. This is according to five diplomats and one official who spoke to "Playbook"—the European edition of the American publication *Politico*. Under the headline "Time for a Direct Confrontation," the publication reported that a senior European diplomat stated a confrontation would "of course" take place, adding that it would likely be "extremely fierce." Another diplomat remarked that they would not be surprised if a "heated" debate ensued. These sources were granted anonymity to speak candidly about their leaders' expectations ahead of the two-day summit. The Spanish leader is expected to clash with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni over migration; two diplomats believe that taking a firm stance on this issue will play well with their respective domestic electorates.
Crucial timing: One diplomat noted that Sánchez is trailing in the polls ahead of early elections scheduled for November 29, while Meloni faces a tough election next year amidst the rising momentum of her far-right rival, Roberto Vannacci. According to the other European diplomat, "Manufacturing a confrontation would be beneficial for Sánchez, and it could be beneficial for Meloni as well."
Setting the stage for a clash: This confrontation comes as EU leaders—and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen—push to accelerate deportations and tighten border controls. This has put Sánchez—whose government has adopted more open migration policies—at odds with the bloc's increasingly hardline stance. The Spanish Prime Minister had previously faced scathing criticism from Meloni and other EU leaders following a massive influx of migrants into Ceuta. The summit follows a visit to Ceuta by the King of Spain, who stated on the sidelines that Ceuta is Spanish and European—marking the EU's final frontier—a declaration described by some as dangerous and highly significant.
Sánchez will arrive fully prepared, two Spanish government officials told "Playbook Madrid." They explained that he had received briefings through weekend meetings, emergency sessions, and ministerial discussions, and that he would present the results achieved regarding deportations, border management, and arrival figures. He is expected to defend his record by pointing to a 74% drop in arrivals via the Atlantic route—a decline Madrid attributes in part to cooperation with Mauritania and Senegal.
A familiar scene: At the European Council meeting held in June, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen steered the discussion toward new EU rules on migrant deportations. Sánchez criticized the bloc's hardline approach, while Meloni backed Frederiksen’s stance and attacked Spain’s decision to regularize the status of irregular migrants.
Ultimately, diplomats do not expect this dispute to yield any significant, tangible change; as one remarked, "They will exchange a lot of words, and then—most likely—go for a drink together afterwards." An EU official noted that substantial effort had gone into aligning the leaders' positions on the Migration Pact, implying that they do not anticipate this diplomatic spat derailing the broader agreement.