Capitals: Europe and the Arabs
A UN report predicted that the Arab region will record slow economic growth of 2.5 percent in 2024, driven by the effects of the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the conflict in Sudan, in addition to fluctuating energy prices, and it is likely to rise again to reach 3.9 percent in 2025.
This came in the summary of the annual report of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), which was recently issued and is titled "Survey of Economic and Social Developments in the Arab Region 2023-2024." According to what was stated in the UN daily news bulletin, a copy of which we received this morning, Thursday.
The report addresses several crises, including wars and political tensions, global economic conditions, and fluctuations in energy markets, and provides detailed forecasts of future growth paths.
The report indicated that despite the voluntary reduction by OPEC+ member states in their oil production during the second half of 2023, oil supply still exceeds demand, increasing pressure on oil-producing countries.
As for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in particular, the report expected them to continue their investments in non-hydrocarbon sectors, which would mitigate the negative effects of the decline in oil prices, estimating their GDP growth at 4.3 percent in 2025.
Severe economic contraction
The report explained that the repercussions of the war on Gaza and Lebanon are greatly affecting neighboring economies such as Egypt and Jordan.
He also said that countries affected by conflicts and wars are still suffering from severe economic contraction, with Palestine recording a contraction of 13.3 percent, and Sudan by 12.6 percent in 2024. Lebanon witnessed an economic contraction of at least 1.9 percent in 2024.
The report also indicates that the least developed countries in the region will witness a growth of 4.4 percent in 2024, driven by increased activity in the extractive sectors.
Comprehensive development plans
On the other hand, the report sounded the alarm about the high unemployment rates in the Arab region, with estimates that they will reach 11.5 percent in 2024.
It warned that the number of people living below the poverty line in the region will constitute more than a third of its population during the period 2024-2026.
The supervisor of the report preparation team at ESCWA, Ahmed Moumi, said that the region needs comprehensive development plans based on innovation and strengthening regional and international partnerships to effectively address challenges.
“The current circumstances demonstrate the importance of working together to mitigate the negative impacts of interconnected crises, by focusing on empowering youth and supporting the most affected groups to ensure a sustainable future,” Momi added.