Brussels: Europe and the Arabs
Under the title of a "damage control" trip, Austria's interim leader Alexander Schallenberg arrived in Brussels today to reassure senior EU officials that his country is not heading down a dark path as far-right Herbert Kickl prepares to take over as chancellor. According to what was published by Playbook magazine, the European version of the American magazine Politico.
Playbook said about what Schallenberg's message described: "Austria is and will remain a reliable, constructive and strong partner in the European Union and around the world," according to comments shared with Playbook. "This was true for previous governments, it is true for this government and it must remain so in the next government."
In other words: Don't worry about Kickl. We've got this under control. Schallenberg’s argument: Even if Kickl emerges victorious from talks on forming a new coalition government, which is not guaranteed, his authority would be undermined by a coalition agreement with the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), as well as the parameters set by Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen. The content of that coalition agreement is still being negotiated. But, according to an EU diplomat, any deal is likely to contain language enshrining Austria’s EU membership and other potential barriers regarding Russia and Ukraine. (Kickl is pro-Russia and said as recently as June that he would not rule out leaving the EU.) In Brussels today: Schallenberg will deliver his letter to European Parliament President Roberta Metsola in the morning, and to the EU’s top diplomat Kaya Kallas, the bloc’s Austrian migration commissioner Magnus Brunner and European Council President Antonio Costa in the afternoon. Schallenberg and Costa are scheduled to hold a joint press conference in the evening. Behind the scenes: The former Austrian foreign minister spent the weekend talking to leaders including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, according to an EU diplomat. The interim chancellor will do his best to convince the EU that a coalition deal would constrain Kickl. But there is concern in Brussels about how strong such a deal really is. While Kickl’s Freedom Party has been in government three times since 2000 — when the EU moved to isolate Vienna diplomatically — the anti-immigration party has never been the senior partner. So there is no telling how it might behave once in power. “I won, I decide”: Kickl said the results would have to take into account “who didn’t win” and “the mistakes of the past.” Some see Kickl as “bound by a coalition deal and perhaps even as chancellor, following in the footsteps of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.” They say he is not like Meloni or even Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The latter is a well-known figure who is seen by other EU leaders as transactional and easy to negotiate with behind closed doors. By contrast, Kickl is “strictly ideological” and “not a politician,” according to another diplomat. Complicating matters further is the fact that Austria is a net contributor to the EU, while Hungary is a net beneficiary in constant need of European cash. When push comes to shove, the tactics Brussels has used to rein in Budapest may not work with Vienna. There is also the fact that Kickl could join a pro-Russian faction in the European Council that already includes Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. Wait a few months, and that number could expand to include Andrej Babis of the Czech Republic, whose populist ANO party is on track to win parliamentary elections this year. Oh, and Croatia’s pro-Russian Zoran Milanovic just won his country’s presidential election (though he doesn’t attend council meetings).

Bottom line: It’s easy to see why the EU is nervous. Pro-Russian hard-rightists aren’t just at the gates of power. They’ve opened the door partly and are rushing in. Schallenberg has a tough job ahead of him.

Politico’s European edition adds, “A preliminary draft of the EU’s annual Single Market and Competitiveness Report 2025, obtained by our tech colleague Matthew Pollitt, raises the alarm about the slowdown in EU single market integration—something that won’t be helped by more anti-EU politicians joining the European leaders’ table.”